CNBC Daily Open: Slowing demand means fewer revenue beats

BankingNov 10, 2023

What you need to know today

Streak continues, sans Dow
Major U.S. indexes continued their blistering winning streak Wednesday — except for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which snapped a seven-day streak. Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed around 1.5% and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.5% after dropping 3.24% in the last two sessions, wiping out more than half of its gains earlier in the week.

Prices slump in China
Fresh data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed the country continuing to struggle with deflationary pressures. China’s consumer price index for October declined 0.2% year on year, more than the 0.1% drop predicted. Producer prices also fell 2.6% — though it’s smaller than the expected 2.7% decline.

Disney pluses subscribers
Disney’s shares jumped around 3% in extended trading after the company reported quarterly earnings. Earnings per share came in at 82 cents, higher than the expected 70 cents. Total Disney+ subscribers, at 150.2 million, also beat forecast by more than 2 million. But the firm’s revenue fell short of estimates — its second consecutive miss — even as quarterly revenue increased 5% to $21.24 billion year on year.

Weakness in Arm
Arm reported earnings for the first time after its initial public offering. The semiconductor licensing company had a net loss of $110 million, but that’s because of a one-time share-based compensation of more than $500 million. Revenue, on the other hand, was up 28% year on year, as licensing sales jumped 106%. Still, shares sank 6.8% after the bell on weak guidance for the current quarter.

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The bond market’s in its worst state in 200 years, according to BNP Paribas’ global chief investment officer. But one corner of the market — known as “fallen angels” — presents an opportunity for 8% yield at a relatively low risk-reward ratio, the analyst said. CNBC Pro screened for top-rated funds under that criteria and came up with a list of ‘fallen angels’ that might provide soaring returns.

The bottom line

Earning season’s winding down, and it’s been mostly a good one so far.

Out of the approximately 88% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported results, more than 88% have surpassed earnings estimates. However, only 62% have beaten revenue expectations. This suggests slowing demand is catching up with companies — but they’ve so far managed to expand their margins by cutting costs.

With hard-hitting reports from Disney and Arm coming in after the bell and no major economic data released, major indexes had a tepid day. Trading volume was lower than the 30-day average.

Nonetheless, the S&P 500 managed to inch up 0.1%, its eighth straight day of gains, and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.08% for its ninth positive session. The last time both indexes enjoyed such uninterrupted gains was in November 2021. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its best winning streak since July with a 0.12% drop yesterday.

This lull in news’ only temporary. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak about monetary policy Thursday and October’s consumer price index reading comes out next Tuesday. Those events will serve as the next major catalysts for stocks, said AXS Investments CEO Greg Bassuk. And though it’s admittedly a very long shot, we’ll see, then, if (the surviving) major indexes manage to extend their winning streak — or precipitate a new fall.

But for investors hoping to time markets and reap quick gains on those events, CNBC’s Bob Pisani has a warning. “The idea that you can predict the future direction of stock prices, and act accordingly — is not a successful investing strategy,” Pisani writes. “The key to investing is not market timing” — it’s giving yourself time in the market.

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